Seeing Usain Bolt quoted at a price of 20.00 may seem a little peculiar but that is the price on offer for the world record-holder and defending Olympic champion being disqualified in the 200 metres at the London Games in August.
So just what are the reasons to back this market for the London Olympic 200m final on 9th August?
First, the big man has yet to race over the distance in 2012. Before the Jamaican’s record-shattering breakthrough in 2008, what American track and field fans call “the deuce” was always reckoned to be his best distance, provided he was never given any of the inner three lanes which cramp the 6ft 6in sprinter’s extra-long stride around the bend.
So Bolt’s decision not to have at least one competitive run-out over 200m in his three European appearances so far this season is, if not astonishing, certainly unusual.
The biggest threat to Bolt’s dominance has got to be his training partner, Yohan Blake. After seizing the opportunity presented by the champion being disqualified to become 100m world champion, he also managed to top the world ranking lists at 200m last year, following an astonishing 19.26sec in Brussels at the end of the season.
That was the first time in five years that Bolt has not been at the top of the world standings at 100 or 200m at the end of a season. And Blake is right up at the top of the 2012 world lists, too, having already run 19.91 in Kingston at the beginning of May. So Bolt can afford no slip ups just to make the Jamaican team.
And that brings us to the third and possibly most serious obstacle between Bolt and the Olympic 200m final: his health and fitness. Recently, Bolt crashed his car returning home from a late-night party. It was Bolt’s second car crash in three years. Because of such uncertainty, and the flying form of Blake and the American sprinters in action in the US Olympic trials in Eugene this week, the 3.50 offered by Unibet in the Olympics games betting to beat Bolt in the Olympic 200m final looks a good bet.
As for his likely finishing time if he takes his place in the 200m final in London, it is worth considering that Bolt’s world record, 19.19sec, was set nearly three years ago. That came in a world championship final after he had already had a gruelling six races in the preceding few days. But since 2009, Bolt has failed to get within two-tenths of a second of his own best time.
With London’s often cool and unfavourable weather conditions for sprinting, you can confidently discount the 15.0 offered on him going faster than 19.00sec, and I wouldn’t look at 5.50 for a sub-19.10sec time with any confidence, either. So 1.55 on Bolt running slower in the Olympic final than his world record has got to be seen as an investment. Provided, of course, the Jamaican actually makes it through to the final.